Official collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal will cause further social unrest in Iran
Iran’s nuclear program is “galloping ahead,” according to International atomic energy agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi, who spoke to Spain’s El Pais newspaper on July 22. Analysts have described these remarks as a serious warning about Tehran becoming a nuclear threshold state in the near future. On July 25, the Wall Street Journal published an article titled “The Iran Nuclear Deal’s Convulsive Death.”
Meanwhile, Tehran’s claims paint a completely different picture. “The path is paved for an agreement in the near future,” said a spokesperson for Tehran’s Foreign Ministry at a press conference on July 20. “If the opposing party acts logically and rationally, the negotiations can produce results,” Iranian regime President Ebrahim Raisi said on July 26.
The latest position of EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and his op-ed in the Financial Times on July 26 demonstrate the correct nature of these two opposing viewpoints. He emphasized, “I have come to the conclusion that the space for additional significant compromises has been exhausted.”According to a piece published on July 22, Iranian newspapers, such as the state-run Hamdeli daily, are also publishing articles describing how “the light of the nuclear deal is dimmer than ever.”
“There is no motivation to resurrect the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] JCPOA,” says a piece published on July 25 in the state-run Setareyeh-Sobh daily, referring to the 2015 nuclear deal. Prior to this, newspapers affiliated with regime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, such as Kayhan, Vatan-e Emruz, and… have long characterized efforts to resurrect the JCPOA as futile and the deal as a rotten corpse.
The question is, why are we seeing positive signals from Raisi and the regime’s Foreign Ministry when relevant parties are talking about the “demise” of the JCPOA and the end of opportunities for a compromise?
The answer can be found in the unfavorable consequences of admitting failure, as highlighted in a piece published on July 25 in the state-run Resalat daily: “Iran is not in a position to accept the responsibility, weight, and price of the nuclear negotiations reaching an official failure and the JCPOA falling short of revival. Announcing the official end of the nuclear talks and the death of the JCPOA will result in an explosive status inside Iran.
In addition to the direct and immediate impact on the country’s economic conditions, the people’s living conditions, and unbridled inflation, it will have a deep psychological impact on public opinion. And most important of all, there is no method to replace the JCPOA.”
This coming from the Resalat daily is significant in and of itself, given its close ties to the Iranian regime’s ruling elite.
This “explosive status inside Iran” has resulted in an escalating crisis within the regime of the mullahs. What’s more intriguing is that Khamenei appointed Raisi as regime president in order to unify his ranks and file in preparation for resolving his regime’s crises. Meanwhile, Khamenei’s domestic calamities have prevented him and his regime from seizing the opportunities presented by the West’s appeasement policy. This could lead to more sanctions against the mullahs’ regime, escalating domestic unrest.
As a result, despite Khamenei and his inner circle’s efforts to portray their regime’s confidence in the nuclear dossier, the failure of the JCPOA will result in an avalanche of additional domestic and international problems for the mullahs’ regime.
Even if the regime eventually obtains nuclear weapons, the mullahs’ main concern remains the Iranian people’s hostility and desire to overthrow the regime.The result will be seen in further protests and uprisings.