Many Iranians followed the MEK when it called for a regime change twice in the past 24 months.

The Iranian regime is afraid of the Iranian people after it mismanages the Covid-19 outbreak. It is just waiting now for more protests to occur which will be demanding not only a change in government but democratic elections and a new constitution as well.

It was on Sunday, May 17^th when the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, held a videoconferencing event with student members of the Basij, which is the civilian wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. At the conference, he accepted that there would be more protests.

Khamenei stated in the videoconference that the protests must not be viewed as a protest against the Islamic way of life. He asked the Basij to try and control the slogans and demands being made to a small number of manageable issues so that there is no focus on the regime itself. So far, the slogans have shown bitter contempt for the current regime, such as one that said “Death to the dictator.”

All sectors involved in protests

The earlier protests, originating as far back as 2009, were founded on the white-collar middle class who were actively opposed to the current system but more recently this view has spread to the blue-collar workers. In 2017 the first protests in the city of Mashhad in 2017 quickly spread to 150 towns and cities.  By 2018 and 2019 the focus of protests was on having a regime change, much to the annoyance of the regime.

In response, in January 2018, numerous activists were fatally shot or tortured until they died and even more were put under arrest and forced into serving long prison terms. Those who took part in last November’s uprising were arrested and face prosecution. There is one estimate that puts the number of peaceful protestors at 1,500 who by the end of the week had been killed. This sort of insane brutality was due to a desperate regime whose popularity no longer exists while preference is now being given to the main opposition lead by Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the Iranian resistance.

Khamenei has stated publicly the concerns he has about the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI-MEK Iran). He thinks they should accept the foundation of the revolution, which according to the mullahs means absolute rule by the clerical authorities. Khamenei is feeling overrun by the support and enthusiasm exhibited by MEK supporters. In the 80s, the MEK was targeted to be destroyed. This didn’t happen as can be shown by the 30,000 or so MEK members who in the late 80s faced annihilation but today are bouncing back. This rise in the influence of the MEK has caused recent concern for the regime, but this increase won’t get even a mention.

When Khamenei appealed to the Basij, this shows the most recent evolution of the regime’s strategy, but it is unlikely to work. Many Iranians followed the MEK when it called for a regime change twice in the past 24 months and it is unlikely to alter their minds.  In January, the regime tried to cover up the downing of the Ukraine passenger aircraft by the Revolutionary Guards,  but in the end, this was not possible and its support was further undermined by the poor handling of the Covid-19 outbreak.

Covid-19 a desperate cover-up by the regime

While Iran’s Health Ministry believes just 7,000 people have lost their lives since the mid-February outbreak, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), claims the true deaths are more than 44,800. These figures are not going to improve due to the re-opening of the domestic economy so the people will be furthering their cause for a regime change and there will be little anyone can do about it.